Moat

What is the durable advantage, is it widening or narrowing, and what would erode it?

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RULE This screen asks and records. It will not tell you whether Northwind is a buy, how convinced to be, or how much to hold — those remain yours.

Source of the moatAnswered

Terminal density in the Northeast plus a pricing engine competitors can’t run below scale — every incremental shipment costs Northwind less to move than a subscale rival.

Is it widening or narrowing?Answered

Widening. Operating ratio improved ~220 bps over three years while peers stayed flat — density compounding, not a cycle.

FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24

Northwind — operating ratio Peer medianlower is better

What would erode it?Answered

A well-capitalized entrant buying its way into density, or a freight recession that resets industry pricing and hides the structural gap.

Evidence boardProvenance on every line

SOURCEDFY24 10-K, p.42Operating ratio 84.2%, down from 86.4% in FY21.

YOURSYour read, 10 JulDensity is the mechanism; the market keeps pricing it as cycle.

AI SUMMARYQ3 call, condensedManagement attributes margin to lane density, not rate environment. Unverified paraphrase — open the transcript.

The loopYour progress

✓Idea inboxdone

✓Circle of competencedone

✓Business qualitydone

◆Moatwriting

Bear caserequired

Portfolio fitto do

🔒Memolocked

What the price impliesReverse-DCF

11.4%

implied annual growth for 10 years, to justify $142.10 today

Do you believe that? Nothing here says whether the number is right — only what today’s price is asking you to assume.

Your readinessYou rate this

The app will not rate your conviction. Set it yourself, and the journal will hold you to it later.