DETAILED ANALYSIS

Compound, quality, and valuation

Build the operating case in layers. Every index exposes its user ratings, weights, and separate confidence.

VALUATION EXTENSION

Intrinsic value and assumptions

Four sections, in the order the product renders them: the arithmetic on your own terminal view, the build that produced it, the lab that runs the same inputs the other way round, and the dated trail of every assumption you have changed.

CAPTURED Rebuilt from a verbatim capture taken by clicking the Valuation extension sub-tab with FLWS loaded. The four section names, the thirteen field labels and the eight Valuation Lab helper lines are the product’s own words. The figures in the fields are a worked example of one owner’s entries: only 3.80, the current price, comes from a source record — the Finnhub EOD cache in the Financial Data Room. Every other number on this page is either typed by the owner or arithmetic on what they typed. None of it is SEC-sourced.

IRR and terminal assessment

State where you think this ends up and how long you are prepared to wait. The arithmetic on those entries appears above them, and it is never run on anything you did not type.

8.5% Annualized IRR, and only that. Your terminal value per share (6.38) plus your cumulative cash distributions per share (0.35), against the current price per share (3.80), over your holding period of 7 years: ((6.38 + 0.35) ÷ 3.80)^1/7 − 1 = 8.5%. It is arithmetic on your own entries. It is not a forecast, not a target, not a return OwnerMind expects, and not a reason to do anything. Change any one of those four numbers and it moves.

Total proceeds per share

6.73

Multiple of money

1.77×

Against your Discount Rate Pct

−3.0 pts

Distributions as share of proceeds

5.2%

Annualized IRR against your terminal multiple. Every other entry held where you left it. The dashed vertical marks the 11.0× you entered; the dashed horizontal marks the 11.5 you entered as Discount Rate Pct. Where the two would meet is arithmetic on two of your own numbers — not a multiple OwnerMind thinks you should use, and not a level it thinks you should wait for.

Annualized IRR on your entries Your entered Discount Rate Pct terminal multiple → annualized IRR

Your terminal view

The ten labels below are verbatim, in captured order. The one-line helpers under them are ours — the product’s own helper text for this section was not captured, only the labels.

Normalized owner earnings / shareYour cycle-normalized figure rather than the reported one, kept per-share so the terminal arithmetic stays comparable.

Terminal multipleWhat you would pay for those earnings at the end of your horizon.

Annual cash distributions / shareCash you expect to receive while you wait, held separate from the terminal figure.

Horizon (years)How far out your terminal view is set.

Terminal growth context (%)Carried alongside the multiple as context. It is not compounded into the terminal value.

Current price per sharePrice context from the Finnhub EOD record in the Financial Data Room. The only figure on this page you did not type.

Your terminal value per shareAssembled in section 2 below. You may enter a different figure; when you do, both are kept and neither is overwritten.

Cumulative cash distributions per shareYour annual figure across the holding period, undiscounted and not reinvested.

Holding period in yearsThe period the IRR is annualized over. Kept separate from Horizon so the two are allowed to disagree on purpose.

Your terminal assessmentIn your own words: what has to be true at the end of the horizon for the figures above to hold.

Where 8.5% came from, line by line. Proceeds 6.38 + 0.35 = 6.73. Multiple of money 6.73 ÷ 3.80 = 1.771. Annualized over seven years, 1.771^1/7 = 1.0851 — so 8.5%. Distributions are treated as received and held rather than reinvested, because you entered no reinvestment rate and the app will not assume one on your behalf. The −3.0 pts above is the same figure set against the 11.5 you entered as Discount Rate Pct in section 3: a comparison of two of your own numbers, reported once and then left alone.

Build terminal value from explicit inputs

Nothing here is assumed. Each row is a figure you stated, and the result is what those figures multiply out to — laid out so you can see which single entry the answer is resting on.

Normalized owner earnings / shareYour entry. No record in the Financial Data Room supplies a normalized figure, so this one is yours and is marked as yours. 0.58

× Terminal multipleYour entry. Changed from 13.0 on 24 Jul — see the audit timeline in section 4. 11.0×

= Terminal value per share, builtThe product of the two rows above, and nothing else. 6.38

· Terminal growth context (%)Carried, not multiplied in. As arithmetic on two of your own entries, an 11.0× exit against 2.5% perpetual growth is the same as discounting at 1 ÷ 11.0 + 2.5% = 11.6% — within a rounding of the 11.5 you entered as Discount Rate Pct. Those three agree with each other. 2.5%

− Net cash debt per share — not deducted in this buildTaken from your Valuation Lab entries: −132,000,000 ÷ 64,800,000 shares. The Lab does deduct it; this build does not, because you assembled the terminal value from an equity-level earnings figure. Both are kept and both are shown. The app does not pick one. −2.04

= Terminal value per share, if you did deduct itShown so the exclusion above is visible rather than silent. It is not the figure section 1 is running on. 4.34

→ Your terminal value per share, as entered in section 1Matches the build. When it does not, both are displayed and the IRR states which of the two it ran on. 6.38

Two figures, both yours, kept apart on purpose. The build above returns 6.38. The Valuation Lab in section 3, running your other entries forward from Starting Fcf and deducting Net Cash Debt, returns 4.78 for the same terminal moment. That is a 1.60 gap between two of your own methods. OwnerMind reports the gap, shows both derivations, and stops there. It does not average them, does not quietly prefer the lower one, and does not mark either as an error — a deliberate difference is a legitimate view, held on purpose.

Valuation Lab

The same case run the other way round. You supply the eight inputs; the Lab reports what the current price would have to be assuming — never what it thinks the price should be.

Labels and helper text below are verbatim from the capture, including the app’s own casing: Starting Fcf and Discount Rate Pct are reproduced exactly as the product writes them, not tidied for readability. The values in the fields are a worked example of one owner’s entries.

Implied FCF growth, years 1–7

2.4%

Enterprise value at your Current Price

$378.2m

Terminal equity value per share

4.78

Net cash debt per share

−2.04

Your inputs

SharesThe share count used to convert company value into per-share arithmetic.

Growth YearsThe number of years in the explicit forecast period.

Net Cash DebtCash minus debt, or debt minus cash when the value is negative.

Starting FcfThe free-cash-flow base used for the first modeled year.

Current PriceThe price used as the starting reference for the calculation; users can override it.

Discount Rate PctThe rate used to discount future cash flows back to today.

Terminal MultipleThe ending multiple used to estimate terminal value.

Terminal Growth PctThe long-term growth assumption after the explicit forecast period.

What the Lab did with those eight numbers. Market capitalization 3.80 × 64,800,000 = $246.2m; adding back the 132,000,000 of net debt gives an enterprise value of $378.2m. Holding your Discount Rate Pct, Terminal Multiple and Growth Years exactly where you set them, the growth rate that makes seven discounted years of Starting Fcf plus a discounted 11.0× exit come to that enterprise value is 2.4% a year. That is what the price is asking for. It is not what OwnerMind thinks the business will do.

One reading, flagged as a reading. The eight captured inputs contain no growth rate for the explicit forecast period, which is why the Lab has to solve for it rather than ask for it; the capture also names /calculators/reverse-dcf and /calculators/current-price-implies as neighbouring routes. The inputs and their helper text are captured. That the Lab runs backwards is our inference from them, and should be checked against the live screen before it is treated as product truth.

And one thing worth seeing. The price implies 2.4% growth across the seven explicit years, which is below the 2.5 you entered as Terminal Growth Pct for the period after those seven years. Your own two numbers say the business grows more slowly during the forecast than for ever afterwards. It is reported, it is dated, and nothing else happens to it.

4 · Assumption audit timeline Rows designed Append-only

The section is captured — Assumption audit timeline is the fourth of the four sections on this tab. Its rows were not captured. The eight below are designed to show what such a trail has to record: what changed, from what to what, when, and by whom. Rows are appended and never edited or removed, so an assumption you have since moved on from stays legible.

YOU 24 Jul 09:12 · Terminal multiple 13.0×→11.0× Narrowed after you re-read your own peer notes. Section 1 recalculated on save rather than on keystroke, and the 13.0 stays on this trail.

YOU 24 Jul 09:14 · Terminal growth context (%) 3.0→2.5 Lowered in the same sitting as the multiple. Two entries changed two minutes apart are recorded as two entries; the trail does not merge them into one edit.

YOU 26 Jul 14:38 · Discount Rate Pct 9.0→11.5 Raised while you were working the Risk Analysis register. Nothing in the register wrote this field — you did, and the trail attributes it to you rather than to the risk that prompted it.

YOU 27 Jul 08:05 · Starting Fcf not set→34,000,000 First entry. A source-backed free-cash-flow value was available for review in the Financial Data Room (SEC EDGAR · derived from Revenue FY 2025 × FCF margin FY 2025). You typed this figure instead of accepting it, and the trail records that the number is yours, not the filing’s.

SYSTEM 28 Jul 18:58 · Current Price 3.72→3.80 Finnhub EOD cache refreshed. This is the only field on the page the product writes for you, and its own helper line says you can override it. Nothing downstream was re-decided; the IRR simply moved.

YOU 29 Jul 07:41 · Your terminal value per share 6.50→6.38 Replaced a standalone figure with the section 2 build (0.58 × 11.0). The two had been drifting apart since the multiple changed on 24 Jul.

YOU 29 Jul 07:44 · Your valuation buffer % 20→25 Widened while you were writing the reasoning under it. The buffer and the reason for it are versioned together, so a buffer can never be found later without the sentence that set it.

AGENT 29 Jul 10:20 · Julian Park raised a question on Your terminal value per share no field changed Proposal only, waiting in the Review Lane for your accept, edit or reject. An agent can question an entry on this trail; it cannot write one.

Why an assumption needs a trail at all. Every figure on this page is an opinion you typed, and opinions move quietly. The trail makes the movement loud: it keeps the number you started with next to the number you hold now, with the date between them. It is append-only, so a revision is a new row rather than a rewrite of an old one — and an agent’s proposal appears here as a proposal even when you never act on it.

Your valuation buffer Section placement not captured A buffer you set, on a number you made

The label is Your valuation buffer %, and the word doing the work is your. This is how much room you require between your own estimate and the price you would pay. It is not a discount applied to a fair value OwnerMind calculated, because OwnerMind does not calculate one. There is no house number here to be conservative about — only yours.

Your valuation notesFree text, versioned alongside the entries above it.

Your valuation buffer %Applied to your own present value below. There is no default; an empty field stays empty.

Present value of your terminal assessment

3.21

After your 25% buffer

2.41

Current price per share

3.80

Your reasoningWhy that buffer and not another. Versioned with the number, so the two can never be found apart.

Every number in this panel is yours. The present value is your terminal value per share (6.38) plus your annual cash distributions (0.05), each brought back seven years at the 11.5 you entered as Discount Rate Pct: 6.38 ÷ 1.115⁷ = 2.98, plus 0.05 × 4.637 = 0.23 — giving 3.21. Your buffer then does one subtraction the app can show line by line: 3.21 − 25% = 2.41.

2.41 is not a fair value, not a target price, not an entry signal and not a position size. It is your own rule written down where you cannot quietly move it later — and if you do move it, section 4 will say so. The current price sits above both figures. That is a fact about the arithmetic on your own entries, and it is not an instruction to do anything at all.

RULE Nothing on this screen is a valuation by OwnerMind. No fair value, no target price, no buy or sell, no position size, no score and no rank. Every figure above is either price context from a source record, a number you typed, or arithmetic on the two — and each one is dated and attributed to you.